28 Sep The 2016 hangover still hurts
The well-known political strategist Steve Schmidt lectured at Stanford University last week. He has been running election campaigns for Republicans such as George W. Bush, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and the now-deceased Arizona Senator John McCain. Nowadays, he is an active political commentator in MSNBC news broadcasts and the podcast Words Matter.
Republican Steve Schmidt made it clear already back in 2018 that he will vote for the Democrats in the next presidential election, regardless of who the party would nominate as its nominee. Donald Trump is, according to him, the worst president ever in American history.
Steve Schmidt explains loudly, firmly, and almost aggressively, during his lecture to Stanford students on Monday night that Donald Trump “WILL LOSE THE ELECTION.” Then he says, slightly quieter:
“But there will be no Ronald Reagan margins.”
After touching his white, well-groomed beard, he also adds something about a “close call”.
All US polls are currently pointing in the same direction. Women and men. Young and old. Latinos and blacks. In several swing states, like Arizona, where no Democrat has won in 70 years, Biden leads. At the time of writing, the national figures say 51 percent for Biden versus 43 percent for Trump. Challenger Joe Biden’s lead is in fact, much bigger than Hillary Clinton’s four years ago, when everyone was sure who would win. Well, that was then.
“Biden needs to show that he’s capable of confronting Trump, that he can look him in the eye. Until then, no one dares to believe in a Democratic victory; they are too afraid to be wrong again,” says Steve Schmidt
Even Steve Schmidt was very wrong four years ago. Three days before the election, he urged Trump to start writing the speech declaring Hillary Clinton a voter.
In addition to anything happening, there is also a growing general distrust of polls. How do you get a reliable selection when almost no one answers the phone when an unknown number is calling, and where many in the prevailing coronavirus times also do not open the door to strangers?
In the late nineties, around 2,000 calls to the sample group to fix a decently reliable national election survey in the United States. Today, approximately 10,000 calls are required. The quality is also more uncertain: who are the ones who answer?
Tuesday this week will be crucial. On September 29, Biden and Trump meet at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio, Cleveland. It is the first of three debates before the November elections.
Joe Biden has an excellent starting point, the issues of coronavirus, racism, violence, and the economy he owns. The followers are still worried, what if his “age will tell”. President-elect Trump is almost always messy, vague, and saying crazy things – like we should drink bleach to get rid of the coronavirus. It doesn’t matter to his electorate, according to analysts. If, on the other hand, Joe Biden loses the thread or mistakes a few numbers on Tuesday, it may be over. Then it’s time to take an aspirin.